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Scientific Review. Geographical Sciences

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FORECASTING OF THE DYNAMICS OF SNOW MELTING IN THE WESTERN URAL REGION, USING WRF/ARW MESOSCALE MODEL

Шихов А.Н., Свиязов Е.М.
The article analyses the possibilities of using mesoscale weather forecast model WRF/ARW for snowmelt process simulation in the Western Urals region on the example of the spring season 2013. The author shows that the WRF/ARW model incorrectly reproduces the snow water equivalent and the air temperature in the initial period of snowmelt. Those errors are the result of using GFS/NCEP global forecast model as the initial and boundary condition of forecast fields. At the same time, the WRF model allows to evaluate with high spatial resolution the flow of solid and liquid precipitation to the catchment areas during the snowmelt. In all cases of heavy snowfalls observed during snowmelt period the model correctly reproduces the localization of precipitation zones and intensity. The simulation of snowmelt process is made with the use of GIS technologies on the basis of actual air temperature data and forecast precipitation data. The verification of the results of snow cover area evaluation is made on the basis of remote sensing data.